S14 contenders: Saffa teams

Never mind the drought, it’s rugby time again. The Super 14 kicks off this week with Michael Brown and Paul Lewis looking at all the franchises and their prospects.
PART 1: Teams from South Africa

Paul Lewis and Michael Brown, NZ HERALD

BULLS (Winners last year)

Strengths
Bold prediction – the Bulls won’t win this year. They still have, however, huge assets such as lock, lineout supremo and captain Victor Matfield and goalkicking first five-eighths Morne Steyn. They also have, arguably, a good draw until the sixth round, when they begin a tour meeting the Force, Blues, Chiefs and Reds in successive weeks. They are still a seriously good defensive side. But will that be enough?

Weaknesses
Injuries – they have copped it this year with Bakkies Botha out for somewhere between four to 10 rounds, a telling blow. Springboks Wynand Olivier, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Akona Ndungane, Pierre Spies, Francois Hougaard, Dewald Potgieter and Danie Rossouw have also all been affected to various degrees. They also have no Bryan Habana, who has moved to the Stormers. They may have to play a halfback on the wing. Gulp.

Opportunities
Zane Kirchner can push his claims to the Springbok No 15 jersey; Wilhelm Steenkamp can step up at lock; Francois Hougaard, if he can get off the wing, can press his case to be the next Bok halfback.

Threats
The new tackled ball rules strike many observers as being the hardest for the South African sides to adjust to, particularly big, man-handling sides such as the Bulls.

STORMERS (10th last year)

Strengths
Once considered a weakness, the Stormers’ tight five is shaping into a decent outfit with power and depth and it could allow their much-vaunted backline to do their thing. And what a backline, strengthened by the additions of Bryan Habana and Jaque Fourie.

Weaknesses
The Stormers have never won a title. They haven’t even played in a final. And 2004 was the last time they finished in the top four. Playoffs experience is critical when the silverware is handed out.

Opportunities
Schalk Burger has the chance to prove he is a leader. He has captained the Stormers before but this is the first time he has done it from the outset. His Springbok jumper is under threat from Heinrich Brussow – this might be a way to get him back to where he was. They also have a good draw and the chance to build momentum, with five of their first six games at home.

Threats
Coach Allister Coetzee has said he will rotate players to accommodate everyone and we all know how risky that can be. Bonus points can also prove crucial and the Stormers claimed only one for a four-try bonus in 2009.

CHEETAHS (14th last year)

Strengths
They have ace Springbok fetcher Heinrich Brussow, even though he has been under an injury cloud. Another Springbok loose forward, Juan Smith, is back after a debilitating knee injury and is a crucial player. Injuries have been a worry for the Cheetahs recently but first five Naas Olivier and his deputy Louis Strydom, hooker Adriaan Strauss and centres Meyer Bosman and Corne Uys are key players expected to recover in time for the opening match. Prop Wian du Preez has also returned from his stint with Munster.

Weaknesses
Without Smith and Brussow, should injury claim them again, they are nowhere near the same side. The pack could struggle but the new rules might suit them more than some South African teams.

Opportunities
1. To not be wooden-spooners.
2. To ambush a weakened Bulls outfit in the first game.
3. To adapt better to the new rules.

Threats
They have a nasty opening draw – the Bulls at home and then Sharks away, followed by the Highlanders and Hurricanes at home. After the bye, they go on a tour that reads: Waratahs, Brumbies, Crusaders and Chiefs. Tough stuff. Another threat: they do not seem to have the depth of talent of other sides and have played without direction and composure pre-season.

LIONS (12th last year)

Strengths
They have Dick Muir as a coach. ‘Nuff said. They have former All Black Carlos Spencer running the show at 10 after the Blues decided they didn’t want him. They have several other well-performed backs: Earl Rose, lightning winger Tonderai Chavanga, the nimble Dusty Noble and some hardened forwards such as Jannes Labuschagne and Cobus “Baywatch” Grobelaar, the captain.

Weaknesses
Again, a lack of real quality right throughout the side, which is not to say they won’t claim some surprise scalps. Spencer can be a genius but it will be interesting to see whether his years in the British game have made him a strength or a weakness. They have looked ordinary in pre-season games, losing 42-12 to the Bulls. Halfback Jano Vermaak, leading try scorer last year, will miss the opening matches through injury. Not good.

Opportunities
Avoiding the wooden spoon.

Threats
They have perhaps the worst tour itinerary in the Super 14 this year – after playing the Stormers and Chiefs at home, they go on the road against the Hurricanes, Brumbies, Waratahs, Crusaders and Highlanders in successive weeks. Phew.

SHARKS (6th last year)

Strengths
The three-time runners-up are stacked with Springboks, including John Smit, Tendai Mtawarira, Bismark Du Plessis, Ryan Kankowski, JP Pietersen and Ruan Pienaar, suggesting they have the squad to win a first title. They also have passionate home support.

Weaknesses
The Sharks have that unwanted tag of chokers. They were everyone’s pick after they won six of their first seven last season, including three of four in Australia and New Zealand, but fell away alarmingly. They did it again in the Currie Cup, easily topping the round robin before falling to the Cheetahs in the semifinals. Expectations are always high in rugby-mad Durban. Patience, though, could be running out.

Opportunities
Whoever gets handed the No 10 jersey. The season-ending injury to Argentinian first five Juan Martin Hernandez has opened up a chance Steve Meyer, Monty Dumond and even Ruan Pienaar.

Threats
Their road trip is daunting – the Crusaders, Waratahs, Brumbies, Highlanders and Hurricanes – meaning they could be left having to win all of their home games. John Smit will also need to be managed carefully. He has been playing non-stop since the 2007 World Cup but has won back the captaincy to add to his workload and already looked tired in pre-season.

TOMORROW: KIWI TEAMS