S14 contenders: Kiwi teams

Never mind the drought, it’s rugby time again. The Super 14 kicks off this week with Michael Brown and Paul Lewis looking at all the franchises and their prospects.
PART 2: Teams from New Zealand

NZ HERALD

BLUES (9th last year)

Strengths
Their backline. Really, it’s quite outstanding with the likes of Joe Rokocoko, Luke McAlister, Rudi Wulf, Isaia Toeava, Anthony Tuitavake, Rene Ranger, Paul Williams and Benson Stanley. Perhaps only the Chiefs could rival them out wide. Even though the Blues finished ninth last season, they scored the second-most points (339) at an average of 26 a game. Obviously the defence wasn’t so crash-hot, which was why they had such a poor 2009.

Weaknesses
The second row. The injury to Ali Williams was cruel on the player but also the coach and he is perhaps the one player Lam really didn’t want to lose. Anthony Boric is a 13-test All Black but there are few completely convinced he is genuine class and totally fit. Word on the street says he lacks the killer instinct – something, incidentally, Andy Haden was originally accused of. Boric needs to step up because Kurtis Haiu has not yet convinced at top level in spite of his work-rate and Filo Paulo, the player drafted in to replace Williams, has only one Air New Zealand Cup campaign under his belt.

Opportunities
Stephen Brett and Alby Mathewson can show they are the inside back pairing the franchise has long coveted; Serge Lilo can develop into the ball-snaffling loosie the Blues desperately need. This season is also important for Lam. Last year, he was appointed to the job late and found himself way behind in planning and organisation. This time there is no such excuse and he also has the squad he wants (save the injury to Williams).

Threats
The Blues will want points on the ladder early – they host the Canes first up – and have an interesting streak of away games (Highlanders, Reds and Crusaders) before closing their campaign with a visit to the Sharks, Cheetahs and Lions and hosting the Chiefs in the final round.

CHIEFS (2nd last year)

Strengths
One of the Chiefs’ greatest assets is that they believe in themselves, their coach and game plan. This differs from previous years, when they failed to make the playoffs, even though they were one of the better sides. Ian Foster seems to have worked out Super 14. He doesn’t panic, doesn’t tinker too much with selections and presents a good public face. His side can also park the expansive game plan and rely on good, old passion and guts. Their backline is laden with internationals, exciting and powerful loose forwards and a tight five that has grown to be the equal of most.

Weaknesses
Traditionally slow starters, they lost their first three games last season before a run of nine wins in 10 games propelled them to the finals. The draw doesn’t help – with away games to the Sharks, Lions and Force in the first three matches and Mils Muliaina (rest) and Lelia Masaga (shoulder) won’t be in the touring party.

Opportunities
If they can win some or most of those first three matches, the Chiefs could be up with the pace. Mike Delany could well become the Chiefs’ regular first five-eighths but Stephen Donald will get the first shot, with Delany most likely to sub for Muliaina at fullback. Donald has struggled to convince everyone he is a quality first five who can control games and could ultimately end up at second five.

Threats
The draw has not been kind to the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a terrible record in the Republic (31 per cent) and they finish with three tough games too – the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Blues.

CRUSADERS (4th last year)

Strengths
They have real depth, albeit maybe not with the same level of experience as the ‘Canes. However, last year’s tyro team now has a year under its collective belt and that could be telling. They have strong back-up in most positions and those two rather recognisable names – McCaw and Carter. The former will be missing for most of the first month but they have good back-up at 7 and the timing is good – their first two games are against the Highlanders and Reds before they take on the Sharks and Blues at home.

Weaknesses
They still look a bit light on the wings – with the exception of new signing Zac Guildford – but this is a quibble of the quibbling variety. Some judges might feel Tyson Keats a better bet at halfback than Kahn Fotuali’i but this too could be a hair of the splitting variety.

Opportunities
Chris Jack will likely miss the first three matches or so with a wrist injury but has a golden chance to get himself right back into All Black locking calculations.
So does Isaac Ross – remember him? Wyatt Crockett has the opportunity to rid himself of the stigma of Italy, and Ryan Crotty and Robert Fruean – two promising midfield backs – have the chance to impress before that Aaron Mauger bloke comes home, sniffing a midfield spot for the 2011 World Cup.

Threats
The absence of McCaw, although probably balanced by the “gain” of Carter. They have a tough finish – away to the difficult Western Force, the Stormers and the Bulls before finishing with the Brumbies at home.

HURRICANES (3rd last year)

Strengths
Well, ahem, at the risk of repeating ourselves (and everyone else), this really could be the year… The Hurricanes have a strong side, with depth and motivation – it is Colin Cooper’s last year as coach. They also have possibly the best draw of any of the major contenders, especially if they negotiate past the Blues at Eden Park first up. They have the best record of New Zealand franchises in South Africa and will need to do so again this year. Against that is the sad fact that the Hurricanes have traditionally discovered new and exciting ways not to win the Super 14.

Weaknesses
You’d be struggling to call this a weakness but, in a side that has depth and experience in every position, maybe first five. Aaron Cruden has undeniable promise and an instinctive, deft touch but is untested at this level. Willie Ripia has not yet convinced that he can run and win vital matches. Could find them out at the sharp end.

Opportunities
They abound in this side – Cruden, with a World Cup in mind, possibly; locks Jason Eaton, Jeremy Thursh and Bryn Evans all will have noticed Ali Williams’ absence; Piri Weepu’s chance to win back his All Black spot; Dane Coles, Scott Waldrom and Rodney So’oialo all have something to prove, while Victor Vito and Karl Lowe have claims to stake.

Threats
The Hurricanes’ well-known ability to trip themselves up. The Blues at Eden Park. A tough middle to their programme with the Bulls (away), Sharks and Crusaders in successive weeks.

HIGHLANDERS (11th last year)

Strengths
Now there’s a thing. The Highlanders look a good bet to do better than last year. Oh, we’re not talking champions or anything but they have a more experienced and dangerous look about them this year and could surprise more than a few. They have a solid, much-improved front five, strong loose forwards and a backline with Jimmy Cowan, Robbie Robinson, Ben Smith, Israel Dagg and a new winger in James Paterson who can apparently run like a startled greyhound. Should rattle a few dags (sorry, Israel).

Weaknesses
Well, they are the Highlanders… They may struggle for depth and, if anything happens to Tom Donnelly, Adam Thomson or Jamie Mackintosh, they may suffer, although new flanker John Hardie appeals as a good ball-winner. Other than that, the main weakness seems in midfield where the likes of Jason Shoemark and Kendrick Lynn had good Air New Zealand Cups – but this is the Super 14.

Opportunities
Mackintosh can make this Super 14 the reverse of last year’s, when he instantly dropped out of All Black calculations.

Josh Bekhuis, at lock, can show his progress and Smith and Dagg can continue their eye-catching upwards curves. As a whole, the Highlanders look the sort of team that might benefit from the new Sanzar tackled ball rulings seeking to encourage bright, open play this year.

Threats
Lack of depth in key positions, always a Highlanders caveat. Tough opening draw – the Crusaders (away), the Blues and then South Africa for the Cheetahs, Stormers and Bulls. That’s testing.