Brumbies 24 v. Lions 13 (Full time)

The Brumbies have won 32 of their last 34 matches against South African opposition at home. They lost only once at the Canberra Stadium in 2009.

Len Kaplan – Rugby365

The Lions won only one game away from Johannesburg in the 2009 Vodacom Super 14, and the last time the Johannesburg-based franchise were victorious in Canberra was in 1997 when the former Transvaal won 44-36.

This year the Brumbies have beaten the Force in Perth, were then good value in losing to the defending champion Bulls at altitude in Pretoria, and last weekend played tactically masterfully in beating the Stormers at Newlands. The Lions in contrast have played three, lost three, and two of those defeats were at home. They’ve shown some ability to score tries but their defence has been hugely disappointing.

Lions coach Dick Muir feels that his team took a step up against the Hurricanes, and that the defence was better than the previous week against the Chiefs when each team scored nine tries in the Chiefs 72-65 win.

“But our defence still let us down on a few occasions. We missed a couple of kicks at goal and we also made some silly mistakes – but the good thing is that we again created opportunities. With more experience the guys will start finishing those opportunities off. We want to take another step up this weekend,” he said.

Muir said he was “quite happy where we’re at. We’re looking forward to a big one against the Brumbies, and we’re looking for that first result.”

Brumbies head coach Andy Friend was generous in his assessment of the Lions: “The Lions have shown what a dangerous side they are in terms of keeping the ball alive and moving. They’ve shown that they are very capable of scoring a number of tries and we’d like to think we’ll also have an opportunity to play a lot more ball-in-hand, running rugby on Friday.”

He added: “Everyone’s very excited about playing our first match in Canberra. We always get tremendous support at home and we’d love to cap it off with a win to help welcome Matt [Giteau] and Justin [Harrison] back to Canberra Stadium.”

The Brumbies have shown that they are adept at playing their natural running game, based on excellent ball retention and quick recycling, and that they can adapt to a more conservative approach too, as they did in beating the Stormers last weekend. This week their flowing game will suit them fine, with no adaptation necessary, and they could run the Lions ragged.

Super 14 results:
2009: Lions won 25-17 (Johannesburg)
2008: Brumbies won 28-21 (Canberra)
2007: Brumbies won 14-9 (Johannesburg)
2006: Brumbies won 28-7 (Canberra)

rugby365.com Prediction: The Brumbies are in search of one more try to reach 600 tries scored in Super Rugby and they are likely to score many more than one on Friday. The Lions have not been helped by wholesale selection changes – player rotation in excess. Barring a miracle, the home team should win comfortably, perhaps by 25 points if the Lions defence is better than we expect, or by more if it’s again a haphazard execution of the defence system and the number of missed one-on-one tackles prevalent so far this year continues.

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Stirling Mortlock, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine, 8 Stephen Hoiles (captain), 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Ben Hand, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Guy Shepherdson, 18 Justin Harrison, 19 Mitchell Chapman,  20 Patrick Phibbs, 21 Matt Toomua, 22 Tyrone Smith.

Lions: 15 Michael Killian, 14 Tonderai Chavhanga, 13 Walter Venter, 12 Doppies la Grange, 11 Dusty Noble, 10 Burton Francis, 9 JP Joubert, 8 Todd Clever, 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (captain), 5 Willem Stoltz, 4 George Earl, 3 Kevin Buys, 2 Charles Emslie, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Hannes Franklin, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Franco van der Merwe, 19 Jacques Lombaard/Robert Kruger, 20 Jacques Coetzee, 21 Wandile Mjekevu, 22 Earl Rose

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Vinny Munro (New Zealand), Angus Gardiner (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

Tags: Brumbies, Lions Rugby, Super 14