Second semi final see the high flying Waratahs take on the Brumbies.
2014: Waratahs won 39-8, Sydney
2014: Brumbies won 28-23, Canberra
2013: Waratahs won 28-22, Sydney
2013: Brumbies won 35-6, Canberra
2012: Brumbies won 19-15, Sydney
2012: Brumbies won 23-6, Canberra
2011: Waratahs won 41-7, Sydney
2011: Waratahs won 29-22, Canberra
2010: Waratahs won 19-12, Sydney
2009: Brumbies won 21-11, Canberra
Prediction: Henry Speight’s 12 defenders beaten against the Crusaders was the joint second-highest total recorded in a Super Rugby match since 2006. Only Digby Ioane’s 13 defenders beaten for the Reds against the Force last May can better this. The Brumbies’ goal-kicking (63 percent) and scrum (76 percent) success rates remain the lowest in the competition this season, though they boast the best ruck success rate (96 percent). The Waratahs top the charts for most carries, metres, offloads, passes and clean breaks per game this term. NSW have averaged fewer missed tackles per game (14.5) than any other side. The Waratahs have averaged fewer kicks from hand (16.3) per game than any other side, but have also received fewer kicks from hand per game (18.2) than any of their peers. The Brumbies rank last for average turnovers won, just 5.8 per match. Bernard Foley (210) and Nic White (204) rank second and third for total kicks this season. The Brumbies try difference is +14, while the Waratahs’ is +31. The Brumbies have scored the most tries from possessions which originated from line-outs (25) this season. They also top the list for tries which originated from scrums (12), while the Waratahs have scored 10 from this method. The Waratahs have won six and lost one of seven home matches against the Brumbies since 2006. The key statistics and pointers – getting the basics right and making the least mistakes, which are vital in play-offs – suggest the Waratahs will have too much gas in the tank and take the win by 10 to 15 points.
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alofa Alofa, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Stephen Hoiles, 5 Jacques Potgieter, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tola Latu, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Jeremy Tilse, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Mitchell Chapman, 21 Pat McCutcheon, 22 Brendan McKibbon, 23 Taqele Naiyaravoro.
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Robbie Coleman, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Leon Power, 4 Sam Carter, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Josh Mann-Rea, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Ruaidhri Murphy, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Fotu Auelua, 20 Tom McVerry, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Joe Tomane, 23 Pat McCabe.
Date: Saturday, July 26
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 19.40 local (09.40 GMT; 21.40 NZ time, 11.40 SA time)
Expected weather: There will be early showers, although it is expected to clear up through the day. It will be mild, with a low of 11°C and a high of 22°C
Referee: Jaco Peyper
Assistant referees: Craig Joubert, James Leckie
TMO: George Ayoub